Numbers on the internet are indeed unreliable, and apparently growing even less reliable on Google. I also wonder if their algorithm kept all the words in the same order, or if it allowed 'approximate' hits, which I find to be an increasing problem with that search engine.
In any case, for the thousandth time, the internet is no use unless you have the knowledge to evaluate the results. Think of definately, im Vorraus, and so on. In order to do a more reasonable comparison, you would need to choose less common words (preferably several different verbs), and compare both word orders, 'try not to ________' and 'try to not ________,' being sure to check each time that the algorithm follows your instructions and doesn't return out-of-order hits.
You would also want to search specifically in published writing, such as books, journals, newspapers, or magazines, as opposed to people just writing whatever comes into their head. This is also becoming much harder to do now that the internet has been so deluged with blogs and social networks, so that its overall quality has declined sharply, but it's still possible, if you cared.
Failing all that, though, a reasonable substitute would be to give more weight to comments by forum users whose experience you have some reason to trust, and take those of no-name snipers with a fair amount of salt.