Mortality displacement of heat-related deaths: a comparison of Delhi, São Paulo, and London.
Hajat S1, Armstrong BG, Gouveia N, Wilkinson P.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Mortality increases with hot weather, although the extent to which lives are shortened is rarely quantified. We compare the extent to which short-term mortality displacement can explain heat deaths in Delhi, São Paulo, and London given contrasting demographic and health profiles.
METHODS:
We examined time-series of daily mortality data in relation to daily ambient temperature using Poisson models and adjusting for season, relative humidity, rainfall, particulate air pollution, day of the week, and public holidays. We used unconstrained distributed lag models to identify the extent to which heat-related excesses were followed by deficits (mortality displacement).
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CONCLUSIONS:
Heat-related short-term mortality displacement was high in London but less in Delhi, where infectious and childhood mortality still predominate.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16135936
Estimating Mortality Displacement During and After Heat Waves
Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, Shakoor Hajat
American Journal of Epidemiology, (...)
The proportion of excess deaths occurring as a result of hot weather that are brought forward by only a short time (“displaced”) is important but not easy to estimate. A recent proposal by Saha et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179(4):467–474) was to estimate this using a “displacement ratio” equal to the sum of deficits of daily deaths below an expected baseline divided by the sum of excesses over all days during and up to 15 days after a heat wave. (...)